[SMM Analysis: Lead Ingot Social Inventory Declined Instead of Increasing Approaching Delivery, Focus on Subsequent Secondary Lead Production Resumptions]

SMM, Oct. 13: According to SMM, as of October 13, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions stood at 36,000 mt, down 6,100 mt from September 29 and about 900 mt lower than October 9.

The SHFE lead 2510 contract was expected to enter delivery this week. Based on the open interest of the front-month contract, the estimated delivery volume of lead ingots was around 23,000 mt. With the current social inventory above 30,000 mt, completing the delivery posed no challenge. Due to downstream enterprises front-loading demand before the National Day holiday, some October lead ingot supplies had been pre-sold. After the holiday, lead smelters saw limited inventory buildup, and secondary lead producers still required time to resume production and contribute output. As a result, some downstream enterprises continued to consume social inventory supplies near consumption areas after the holiday, leading to a decline in lead ingot social inventory approaching the delivery date. Additionally, secondary lead producers gradually resumed production after the National Day holiday, and lead market supply availability was expected to ease gradually after mid-to-late October.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM’s internal database model, for reference only and not intended as decision-making advice.